Chuck Schumer could taste the majority in the United States Senate.
But then the bad news hit him like a ton of bricks.
And Chuck Schumer was red with rage when he got his hands on this secret polling data.
Texas is the marquee Senate race of the cycle as both parties spent hundreds of millions of dollars to secure victory.
Democrats need to flip four seats to seize the majority.
A win in Texas almost certainly spells doom for Republicans.
A CNN poll days before the election showed Democrat James Talarico holding a 6-point lead over Republican Ken Paxton.
The prediction market Kalshi found bettors giving Paxton a 69% chance of victory.
But on the inside, Democrats with access to the private polling and early voting data painted a darker picture with Talarico as the underdog.
“I think James has at most a 50 percent chance of winning,” Travis County Democratic Party chairman Luke Warford told The New York Times.
The Times reported that the Talarico campaign’s internal polling showed a margin-of-error race, and they agreed with the sentiment that Talarico was, at best, a coin flip to win the election.
An examination of the simple math of voter registration data showed why Talarico faced such an uphill battle.
Quantus Insight pollster Jason Corley posted on X that as both parties headed into election day, Republicans held a massive advantage over Democrats in terms of both high propensity and low propensity voters.
“The 3x and 4x Republicans are largely banked, at 75–82% of their 2024 totals. But “largely” leaves roughly 280k still out, against 70k Democrats. That’s a ~200k net Republican reserve among the most reliable voters.
The bigger reserve is less certain: 810k 1x and 2x Republicans short of 2024, versus 390k Democrats. Another ~400k net if they return. If they don’t, then it never materializes,” Corley wrote.
A “3X” and “4X” voter is one who voted in 3 or 4 of the last 4 elections and is considered someone reliable to show up in midterms.
“1X” or “2X” voters generally only vote in Presidential Elections.
Former Dallas Chief of Staff Justin Vos explained how Americans should interpret the vote count on Election Night and how the numbers would show early on if Republicans were going to hold the Texas seat.
“At around 7:15 PM on Election Night, all the Early Votes will be counted in Texas, with only the Election Day votes left to count. Here’s the propensity that hasn’t voted yet in Texas’ top three counties.
It’s safe to say if a Republican candidate is leading at that time, they will win. Election Day votes will shift R,” Vos posted on X.
At around 7:15 PM on Election Night, all the Early Votes will be counted in Texas, with only the Election Day votes left to count. Here’s the propensity that hasn’t voted yet in Texas’ top three counties.
It’s safe to say if a Republican candidate is leading at that time, they will win. Election Day votes will shift R.
A clarification for what “propensity means”, it’s how often a voter casts a ballot in an election. High propensity voters cast ballots in every election, mid propensity in half of the elections (midterms aka this election), low propensity typically only vote in Presidential elections.
— Justin (@JustinVos) November 1, 2026
Republicans don’t need to persuade any voters to cast a ballot for Paxton.
They have all the voters they need as registered Republicans to win.
The issue is whether they will show up on Election Day.
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