Chuck Schumer and the Democrats thought they were on easy street.
Polls showed Schumer and his party were poised for a sweep on Election Day.
And Chuck Schumer choked when he saw the one number that could ruin his Senate takeover.
The Senate is the real prize in the midterm elections.
If Democrats win the Senate, Trump’s Presidency is truly over, as Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer would block confirmation of any Trump nominees.
Democrats have even made it clear they would leave a Supreme Court seat vacant for two years, hoping their nominee wins the White House in 2028.
To win a Senate majority, Democrats need to flip four GOP-held seats.
Right now, polls and prediction markets say that’s the election’s trajectory.
Real Clear Politics’s polling aggregator shows Democrats leading in six races for Republican seats.
Kalshi prediction markets list Democrats as a 61% favorite to win the Senate.
But it’s not yet time for Democrats to prepare the champagne for Election Night.
That’s because, in the Trump era, polls have consistently underestimated Trump’s support.
Liberal media organizations and universities that conduct polling either can’t reach Trump supporters or they purposefully publish inaccurate polls showing Democrats leading by wide margins to demoralize Republicans and suppress their vote.
Fox News Channel’s Bret Baier opened the door for this discussion when he asked Real Clear Politics’s Tom Bevan about Texas Democrat Senate candidate James Talarico mysteriously disappearing from the campaign trail for nearly two weeks, only to re-emerge and challenge Republican Ken Paxton to a debate.
“In Texas, the president is calling for a Paxton-Talarico debate. He did that on Truth Social. Talarico has agreed to a debate. Paxton declined, proclaiming the host would be biased, and did not respond to invitations. So Talarico offered to host a debate on Fox News. He even mentioned this show. Thank you. But there is no response yet.
Now there is this missing-in-action for James Talarico. Supposedly he has had the flu, but we have not seen him on the campaign trail in 10, 11 days? 12 days?” Baier wondered.
Polls currently show Talarico leading Paxton, but the golden rule of politics is the candidate asking for a debate is the one losing.
Bevan began by mocking the idea that Talarico vanished because he was bedridden with the flu.
“I have had the flu. I don’t know if it’s ever lasted 12 days in the middle of a campaign. Can’t you do a Zoom? It must be a bad case,” Bevan began.
“This race is obviously one of the marquee races. Millions of dollars spent. President Trump has been there three times already. Republicans think they are going to pull this out because Paxton, as flawed as he is, has already won three times statewide,” Bevan added.
Bevan then admitted that polls showed Democrats poised for a Senate takeover with one caveat: the polls could be wrong.
Even a small polling error would be enough for Republicans to keep control of the Senate.
“But overall, Democrats are ahead in the polls. In six Senate races, if the polls are on target, they would net six Senate seats. But if the polls are overstating Democratic support by two points, or Republicans outperform by two points, they will keep the Senate,” Bevan concluded.
That’s not a far-fetched scenario.
If the same polling error that overestimated Democrats in Senate races in 2024 occurs, Republicans won’t lose any seats in the Senate in 2026.
A 3.2% polling error on RCP would indeed be enough for the GOP to win 53 Senate seats.
Democrats enjoyed a polling error of that or more in Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Arizona last midterm cycle. https://t.co/6pu4Im2glp
— Red Eagle Politics (@RedEaglePatriot) October 8, 2026
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