Control of both chambers of Congress is up for grabs in the midterm election.
The fate of Trump’s agenda also hangs in the balance.
And now a top pollster just smacked Trump with this doomsday warning.
Pollster Scott Rasmussen told viewers of the Napolitano Morning Brief that the current polling on the economy points towards a Democrat sweep in November.
“If the numbers that we’re seeing today were the same in November, the Democrats would not only win the House, they would almost certainly win control of the Senate,” Rasmussen began.
The elections are still eight months away, and Rasmussen noted there is still time for improvement, but that Republicans needed to get to work now on the economy.
“Now, any improvement from this baseline begins to give the Republicans a better chance of holding the Senate, but right now they’re starting in a pretty deep hole, and it’s going to take a while to dig out of it,” Rasmussen added.
Rasmussen explained to The Daily Caller that, for all the noise about culture wars, immigration, and the war in Iran, the economy will always be the number one issue in the election.
“People caught up in the world of politics and campaigns tend to underestimate the impact of the economy on elections,” a statement from Rasmussen to the Daily Caller read. “But, as James Carville colorfully reminded us decades ago, the economy sets the baseline for all elections. And, the way people feel about their personal finances is the single best measure of that baseline.”
Gas prices are the biggest driver of negative economic sentiment.
And gas prices spiked to $3.84 a gallon as Iran attacked oil infrastructure across the Middle East.
The trend of the cost at the pump will determine the outcome of the election, Rasmussen predicted.
“If gas prices begin heading back down in the not-too-distant future, it is likely that economic confidence will recover enough by Election Day for the GOP to keep the Senate,” Rasmussen continued. “That is still the most likely outcome. It is what I would predict at the moment.”
“If gas prices remain high and that extreme pessimism continues, it will exert a serious drag on Republicans all across the country. GOP hopes of picking up a seat in Georgia or Michigan would disappear,” Rasmussen stated. “Republican seats in Maine, North Carolina, Alaska, and Ohio could be at risk. And, if the environment is that negative, there is always room for an unexpected sleeper race.”
Rasmussen has one final warning for the GOP.
The latest poll Ramussen conducted for Napolitan News Service poll found that just 24 percent of Americans said their financial situation was improving, with 39 percent reporting it was getting worse.
Rasmussen explained to The Daily Caller that Americans’ economic confidence could drop overnight, but that rebuilding it took about six months, which gave Republicans a mid-September deadline to lower gas prices or else Rasmussen predicted an “ugly” election night.
“When bad news comes in, people’s confidence falls almost immediately. When good news returns, it takes a while. For example, if the fighting ended tomorrow, and if the price of gas went back to where it was just before the fighting began, it would take about six months, normally, before the American people began to get their confidence back to where it had been,” Rasmussen explained. “But if you think about that, six months from now is mid-September.”
“They need to get a situation stabilized to begin moving the trend in that direction quickly, or else it’s going to be a really ugly election night,” Rasmussen concluded.
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