As the polls have tightened, media pundits have been forced to rewrite their narrative.
No longer can they boast that Hillary Clinton will coast to the White House.
And the top election forecaster just detailed how Trump can win the .
Nate Silver is the left’s polling guru.
He correctly forecast the 2008 and 2012 elections.
And whenever it looked like Romney was catching up in 2012, Silver would assess the data and reassure nervous Democrats that Obama was actually comfortably ahead.
But after originally giving Donald Trump a 2% chance to win the Republican nomination, he’s now cautioning everyone that Trump still has a chance to beat Hillary Clinton.
Once FBI Director James Comey dropped the bombshell he was reopening the investigation into Hillary Clinton’s private email server, the polls began to tighten.
After pouring over the data, Silver explained on his website, fivethirtyeight.com, what Trump’s path to victory looks like.
He explained that if Clinton’s lead in the national polls narrowed to 2 points or fewer, the Electoral College would shift in Trump’s favor:
This isn’t a secure map for Clinton at all. In a race where the popular vote is roughly tied nationally, Colorado and New Hampshire are toss-ups, and Clinton’s chances are only 60 to 65 percent in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. She has quite a gauntlet to run through to hold her firewall, and she doesn’t have a lot of good backup options. While she could still hold on to Nevada, it doesn’t have enough electoral votes to make up for the loss of Michigan or Pennsylvania. And while she could win North Carolina or Florida if polls hold where they are now, they’d verge on being lost causes if the race shifts by another few points toward Trump. In fact, Clinton would probably lose the Electoral Collegein the event of a very close national popular vote.
It’s true that Trump would have to make a breakthrough somewhere, by winning at least one state in Clinton’s firewall. But that’s why it’s not only reasonable but 100 percent strategically correct for Trump to be campaigning in states such as Michigan and Wisconsin. (I’ll grant that New Mexico is more of a stretch.) Sure, Trump’s behind in these states, but he has to win somewhere where he’s behind — or he’s consigning himself to four more years in Trump Tower instead of the White House. MIchigan and Wisconsin are as reasonable as any other targets: Trump isn’t any further behind in them than he is in higher-profile battleground states such as Pennsylvania, and the demographics are potentially more favorable for him.
If you want to debate a campaign’s geographic planning, Hillary Clinton spending time in Arizona is a much worse decision than Trump hanging out in Michigan or Wisconsin. Sure, she could win the state — but probably only if she’s having a strong night nationally. If the results are tight next Tuesday instead, Michigan and Wisconsin are much more likely to swing the election.
After this article was published, a slew of state polls showing momentum for Trump came out.
CNN found trump up 6 points in Nevada.
Survey USATrump leading by 7 in North Carolina.
Susquehanna and Monmouth University published polls of Pennsylvania showing Trump gaining ground in the Keystone State.
The Real Clear Politics map, showing no toss-ups, finds the Electoral College count stands at 273 for Clinton and 265 for Trump.
That leaves Trump just one state short of victory.
In the final days of the campaign, Trump has expanded his efforts to Virginia, Michigan, New Mexico, Wisconsin and Colorado in a final play to flip the states that could put him over the top.
Will it work?
Let us know what you think in the comment section.