Democrats got some bad news.
Their grip on power is slipping away.
Nancy Pelosi was dealt a major blow that could cost her everything.
The Census Bureau announced the reapportionment of congressional districts based on the count from the 2020 census.
It was not good news for the Democrats.
Seven congressional seats shifted from states Joe Biden won to states carried by Donald Trump.
David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report broke down the changes:
There was a much smaller shift than expected: only seven seats shifted between states, not the ten some estimates suggested. Texas was the big winner, picking up two seats. Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina and Oregon each picked up one seat. But Florida and Texas both gained one less seat than expected, and Arizona missed out on picking up a seat — indicating a lower Hispanic count than estimates anticipated.
On the negative side of the ledger, seven states will lose one seat each: California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia (this is the first time California will lose a seat since statehood). But Alabama, Rhode Island and Minnesota each breathed a huge sigh of relief, as they narrowly averted a loss. Amazingly, Minnesota beat out New York for the 435th and final House seat by just 89 residents.
Wasserman added that the reapportionment process would net Republicans three and a half seats.
That’s terrible news for Democrats.
Republicans only need to flip five seats in the House of Representatives to boot Nancy Pelosi from the Speaker’s office.
Reapportionment gets Republicans to 60 percent of that number.
Historical trends also favor Republicans.
Since World War 2, the president’s party lost on average 26 seats in the House of Representatives in midterm elections.
Just hitting the historical average will put Republicans comfortably in the majority.
That fact, combined with the GOP’s dominance in the redistricting fight—in additionto the census shifting congressional seats into more friendly terrain, Republican-led state legislatures are drawing the maps for twice as many seats as Democrat-led legislatures—has Republicans brimming with confidence that they can win back the majority in 2022.
POLITICO Playbook reported for the House Republican retreat in Orlando that “Lawmakers are practically giddy over the prospect of taking back power — and there’s no shortage of sports analogies as Republicans start to put a finer point on their strategy. After hearing from former football coach and player LOU HOLTZ at Sunday night’s kickoff dinner, Republicans got another dose of athletics-themed content during a session on how to deal with the media this morning.”
Republicans are clearly within striking distance of rendering Nancy Pelosi as the first Speaker to suffer the humiliation of losing the majority twice.
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