Donald Trump spent months warning Americans about the dangers of mail-in voting.
His greatest fears may be about to come true.
That’s because Donald Trump just found out how he could lose a landslide lead on Election Night.
Democrat data analytics firm Hawkfish’s CEO Josh Mendelsohn told Axios on HBO that on Election Day, Donald Trump could be sitting on a lead of over 300 Electoral College votes because Republicans will mainly vote in person and just 15 percent of mail-in voting – which is expected to favor Democrats – will have been counted.
“We are sounding an alarm and saying that this is a very real possibility, that the data is going to show on election night an incredible victory for Donald Trump,” Mendelsohn told Axios on HBO.
Mendelsohn then claimed that as the days and weeks dragged on, the result would flip from a Trump route to a decisive Biden victory.
“When every legitimate vote is tallied and we get to that final day, which will be some day after Election Day, it will in fact show that what happened on election night was exactly that, a mirage,” Mendelsohn continued. “It looked like Donald Trump was in the lead and he fundamentally was not when every ballot gets counted.”
Axios ran the numbers based on polling and analytics from Hawkfish and exclusively reported how this scenario would play out:
Under one of the group’s modeling scenarios, Trump could hold a projected lead of 408-130 electoral votes on election night, if only 15% of the vote by mail (VBM) ballots had been counted.
- Once 75% of mail ballots were counted, perhaps four days later, the lead could flip to Biden’s favor.
- This particular modeling scenario portrays Biden as ultimately winning a massive victory, 334-204
Americans are used to elections being called on Election Night.
John Kerry and Hillary Clinton both conceded the day after the election, but on Election Night it was clear they had lost.
Democrats extending Election Day into Election Week or Election Month will only invite claims on both sides that the result is illegitimate.
Democrats will falsely charge that Donald Trump manipulated the postal service to slow down the mail or leveraged friendly state board of elections and secretaries of state to disqualify ballots from Democrat strongholds.
Republicans will counter by correctly noting that Democrats invited mayhem into the system with last minute rule changes and deadlines that allowed ballots to continue to trickle in after Election Day and flip the outcome of the election.
Americans have never witnessed one candidate hold a landslide lead on Election Night only to see his opponent win in a rout due to late arriving ballots.
It’s a system that only invites questions and not conclusions about the outcome.
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