Nancy Pelosi led the Democrats in predicting victory in the midterm elections.
They looked at the data and thought they had control of Congress all locked up.
But this new poll had some surprising numbers and it knocked Pelosi for a loop on Election Day.
New NBC/Wall Street Journal Poll Shows Control Of Congress A Toss Up
On the Sunday before the midterm election, NBC news released their final poll about the race for Congress.
The survey showed Democrats hold a seven point lead in the generic ballot question of which party Americans want to see run Congress.
Republicans had gained ground for the September poll which showed Democrats leading by nine points on this question.
A seven point lead puts Democrats right on the cusp of winning back the House.
But it is no sure thing.
The internal numbers showed why.
Republicans and Democrats were equally enthusiastic to vote.
In the 2006 and 2010 wave elections, the party that won back Congress held a double-digit lead in voter enthusiasm.
NBC’s Steve Kornacki tweeted out the results:
% of registered voters with very high level of interest in election in final pre-midterm NBC/WSJ poll:
Now Dem 73% GOP 72%
2014 Dem 57% GOP 58%
2010 Dem 58% GOP 70%
2006 Dem 69% GOP 56%
Nate Cohen, who runs the New York Times Upshot polling, was surveying key House districts.
He tweeted out how their numbers gave Democrats an advantage, but things were on a knife’s edge:
Across our 28 polls in districts rated as “tossups’ by the Cook Political Report, we have the Democrats leading by a little under 1 point Democrats only need about one-third of these districts to take the House, but there are a lot of close races out there
And it wouldn’t take much of a nudge in either direction to topple a lot of districts. 9 of the 28 were within less than 1 point; 23 were within 3 points
Republicans Believe Their Polling Shows They Have A Shot
Conservative talk show host Steve Deace tweeted out that a Republican source told him their numbers showed the party could still hang onto Congress:
From a little birdie out in the field of several states:
“Think (GOP) could keep House. Our final numbers this weekend are Dems with 5-7 seat majority right now.”
“Thinking GOP with 55-56 seats in the Senate.”
“Trump is drawing massive crowds right now.”
To be sure, all the polling data points to a Democrat victory.
But no one knows how big it will be.
Democrats could still win 20 seats and fall short of taking back the House.
If Republicans grow their Senate majority – or hang onto or minimize their losses in the House – it will be because Donald Trump made immigration the number one issue in America the last two weeks.
The media blasted Trump for using “racial dog whistles.”
But many critics believe they only attacked Trump so strongly because they know the issue is effective and they want him to drop it.
We will keep you up to date on any new developments in this ongoing story.